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UFC 167 Picks – Gary’s Gambling Glimpses

St-Pierre vs Hendricks 

What can I say, I’m such a GSP nuthugger that I can’t see clearly because of all the pubes in the way.  That is why I won’t bet what I actually feel is a value bet on Hendricks @+231.  He’s got all the tools to dethrone the champ, elite level wrestling (which he doesn’t even use), great power in his hands (especially the left), and no apparent weaknesses really.  We haven’t seen much of his bjj but he hasn’t really needed to show us any either.  We’ve all seen GSP outwrestle elite wrestlers before, but Hendricks has even better credentials than Koscheck, so the wrestling game should be interesting.  Let’s call that a toss-up for now.  The striking, well, GSP definitely has more tools in the sense that he has a great jab, distance, timing, and leg kicks, whereas Hendricks is pretty much a hook/uppercut kinda man but with devastating power.  I’d have to lean slightly toward GSP in this category but 5 rounds is a long time to not get caught by one punch, so again hard to define an edge.  GSP actually has shown his submission/grappling skills in many fights whereas Hendricks is an unknown for now there.  By default, I’d have to give the bjj edge to GSP.  GSP’s conditioning is proven, and I can’t say I’ve seen Hendricks show much weakness there either, however, GSP has fought many 5 round battles whereas Hendricks has never.  This matchup seems like a closer contest than the current odds would dictate.

Pick:  Hendricks @+231

Sonnen vs Evans

Oh Sonnen, I love the guy.  Frickin hilarious, and gets a lot of heat but definitely has the skills to compete with top competition.  Unfortunately for him I don’t see him having any advantage in this fight.  Evans is a better wrestler, a better striker, has more power, and is much quicker.  If Sonnen does have an edge somewhere it might be in the bjj department, but good luck getting there.  I see Evans taking this, but the odds don’t seem too great at the moment.

Pick:  Evans @-178 or don’t even bet

Lawler vs Macdonald

I’m really looking forward to this fight, has firecrackers written all over it.  Macdonald is a beast, good wrestling, power striking, and very few fights where he didn’t just walk through people.  Lawler, is also a heavy handed striker who’s had a resurgence lately with some nice T(KO)’s.  He’s also at his new weight class, welterweight.  Although I love and want Macdonald to win, because he’s this new rising prospect turned contender.  I’m a math guy at heart, and the odds are just way too skewed to not bet Lawler.

Pick:  Lawler @+315

Koscheck vs Woodley

Both these guys have similar assets but I believe that Koscheck is better in every area.  I can’t think of one dimension where Woodley has shown he is better.  At close to pick’em odds, you gotta go with the veteran.

Pick:  Koscheck @+101

Herman vs Leites

This is an easy pick for me.  Herman.  Especially at those odds.  Leites has never had good wrestling and he’s not known for his striking so his only advantage would be obviously on the ground.  Herman is way more well rounded, and I believe he can keep it standing.  I also hope he’s learned in his Shields fight that you don’t purposely go to the ground when that’s your opponent’s strength.

Pick:  Herman @+181

The odds I use are always the current odds at the time of writing from pinnacle sports.  Now remember, don’t be a degen and always bet according to your bankroll.

G3

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  • Ivan Y

    Thanks for posting Gary. I definitely think Hendricks have a good shot at taking down GSP.

  • Ivan Y

    Nice call on Lawler and Evans. I can’t believe Hendricks got robbed of a decision; how did he not win Rounds 1,2 and 4?

    • Gary

      I agree with you. However, I watched the fight again and my I scored it 48-47 Hendricks as did most everyone including major media outlets. No one seems to be arguing about rounds 2-5, the only issue seems to be round 1. It was a closer round than I had originally thought, both of them had a takedown and both had some good striking and grappling. Even the fight metrics are nearly identical for that round. However, if you watch the round, it is pretty obvious that the Hendrick’s significant stirkes are much more devastating than GSP’s and that was the difference for the scoring in that round for me. Another reason people were outraged were because the rounds GSP won, he won by a small margin, the rounds Hendricks won he won by a large margin (but not enough to warrant a !0-8). This is the same concept in elections, or tennis. For example, you could win more points in a tennis match against me but still lose 6-4, 6-4. I still think Hendricks won, but according to the scoring system, it wasn’t as horrible as a decision as most thought since the outcome relied on a close round.

      • Ivan Y

        Yes, I can see the first round being a close one.