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UFC 168 Picks – Gary’s Gambling Glimpses

UFC 168 Picks & Predictions – Gary’s Gambling Glimpses


Weidman vs. Silva

 I’m one of the few people who thought that Weidman would defeat Silva the first time, and put my money where my mouth was, and at juicy odds to boot (+184).  I was also one of the many people that were surprised how it ended, not because he won or that he won by KO even, but because of how Silva got clowned while clowning himself.  Now of course, the vast majority of Silva nuthuggers had the perfect excuse to blame his loss solely on his clowning.  They fail to realize that Weidman was thoroughly winning from start to finish as well.  I really believe that Weidman is the more complete fighter and the only advantage Silva has is on the feet (when he’s not clowning), and even that advantage is not much in my opinion.  The only problem now is that we now don’t get juicy odds on Weidman, whom I believe is the better overall fighter.  I’m expecting another victory from Weidman, but not happy about the price and hoping steam will come in on Silva closer to fight night (so far this has been a trend leading up to the fight).

Pick: Weidman @+139

Rousey vs. Tate

Very excited for this fight.  These girls are always entertaining, and Rousey is a straight beast.  Tate has all the tools to beat her, except possibly her ability to keep it standing and that’s a big problem, because it’s been proven time and time again, if Rousey gets you down, you’re done, and possible injured.  No one has been able to stop Rousey’s armbar, and in fact, or even get out of the first round.  All of Rousey’s previous opponents had been armbarred and Tate knew that going into their first fight and still could not stop the inevitable.  Not only did Tate get caught but had her arm mangled in the process.  But I do recall her doing quite well in the fight leading up to that point, which many don’t seem to.  She’s been granted another shot.  You’d think that Tate would have been tirelessly working on tdd and armbar defence all camp.  Well at least that’s what I’m hoping for because the odds are just too juicy.  If Tate can somehow avoid or negate that judo/armbar of Rousey’s (big assumption), I actually think it’s a coin flip.  At these odds it’s an easy bet on Tate.

Pick: Tate @+555


Barnett vs. Browne

I like Barnett in this fight.  Browne may or may not be able to keep this fight standing but I’m leaning toward not.  Also, I’d like to mention that Browne looked horrendous in the Overeem fight.  Yes, he knocked him out with a kick late in the first round but he looked sluggish and weak, even sick almost.  He did not look like his usual self and was pretty lucky to land that KO kick, otherwise he was heading toward a decision loss.  I feel this had more to do with Overeem being careless (remember his fight with Silva?) than Browne being great.  I’m generally not a big fan of betting on favourites, especially when they’re priced at worse than -200, but I think it’s a decent bet on Barnett.  If the line gets any worse, I’m out though.

Pick: Barnett @-189


Miller vs. Camoes

I can’t see Camoes taking this.  Miller has all the tools, it’s his fight to lose.  That being said, the odds are horrendous, I’m staying away from this fight.

Pick: Miller @-354 (If you’re crazy enough to lay these odds, I’m not.)


Poirier vs. Brandao

I really like Brandao, ever since his TUF season.  He’s tough, exciting, and well rounded.  Poirier is also a good fighter but has had some difficulties with top fighters.  I’m hoping Brandao is one of them, and I definitely like the price.  He’s definitely the underdog when looking at their records but I’ve seen him steadily improve.  Go Brandao.

Pick: Brandao @+195


Siver vs Gamburyan

This should be a good fight considering Siver’s kickboxing and Gamburyan’s power and judo.  Both have come from lightweight in the past but I think considering everything this should be a closer fight than the odds dictate.  Therefore, my money is on Gamburyan.

Pick: Gamburyan @+192


The odds I use are always the current odds at the time of writing from Pinnacle Sports.  Now remember, don’t be a degen and always bet according to your bankroll.



UFC 168 Predictions for Main Event from UFC Fighters


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  • Ivan Y

    Thanks for sharing Gary. Although I kinda like Silva. I hope his odds decline so I can buy cheaper, but I doubt it. Silva wins TKO!

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